Forward and Section 1

Foreword 

The Mayor of London’s City Resilience Strategy 2020 describes London as a global city and the economic engine of the United Kingdom (UK), accounting for 23 per cent of the UK’s economic output. London is a city with an unusual density of risk. As well as being the seat of the UK government, London holds the residence of the head of state, is the UK’s financial hub and contains approximately 15 per cent of the United Kingdom’s population. 

London’s unusual density of risk is reflected in the range of risks recorded in the London Risk Register. This document is informed by the National Security Risk Assessment; and the public facing National Risk Register. These registers describe low frequency high impact events nationally, however the density of risk in London means that risks on these registers have a higher likelihood of being realised in London than most other areas of the UK. In some cases, the exposure to these risks in London drives the national risk rating because events occurring in London have national impact. 

Geopolitical turbulence and conflict have been a noted feature of 2025. As a global city the impacts on London are likely to be complex and varied. The London Risk Register includes cyber-attacks, energy cut-offs, assassinations, terror attacks and direct attacks of various kinds. London Fire Brigade (LFB) is required to maintain service provision during periods of disruption and to respond directly and in partnership to emergencies where its capabilities are needed. 

Both the UK Government and London’s Mayor’s Office have declared a climate emergency. London has experienced both surface water flooding and wildfires in recent years. 

The City Resilience Strategy states that sudden impact events can immediately disrupt a city and may have wide ranging and unexpected impacts. Consequently, resourcing to risk for LFB indicates the Brigade must resource and plan to be able to respond both to demand under normal requirements and to the likely occurrence of one or more extraordinary risks which may have national impacts. 

The purpose of this assessment is to allow LFB to understand and prioritise the risks in its operating environment and align its resources appropriately. 

Section 1. Introduction and Approach 

Introduction 

The Fire and Rescue National Framework for England 2018 places a duty on all Fire and Rescue Services to, “identify and assess all foreseeable fire and rescue related risks that could affect their communities, whether they are local, cross-border, multi-authority and/or national in nature from fires to terrorist attacks”. Fire services must also, “have regard to Community Risk Registers produced by Local Resilience Forums,” for London, this is the London Risk Register. Under the framework, each Fire Service must produce an Integrated Risk Management Plan that must reflect up to date risk analyses including an assessment of all foreseeable fire and rescue related risks that could affect the area of the authority. The London Fire Commissioner’s (LFC) Assessment of Risk for London (AoR) is the Brigade’s response to meet these requirements. 

The AoR meets these requirements by identifying and assessing all foreseeable hazards to which the LFB might be reasonably expected to respond, including reasonable-worst-case risks from the London Risk Register and by assessing their likelihood and consequence. 

The National Risk Register is a public facing document based on the National Security Risk Assessment, the 2025 is available here; National Risk Register - 2025 edition. 

The London Risk Register 2026 is available here.

In the CRMP the LFC made a commitment to introduce Local Risk Management Plans, co-designed with local residents and business. Borough Risk Management Plans are the vehicle for this local level engagement and can be found here; Community.

Who should use the Assessment of Risk (AoR)? 

The AoR is intended to be used primarily as a technical document by LFB staff to direct and prioritise work. It is available to the public, but it is acknowledged that due to its complexity it is not intended to be a public risk communication tool. LFB teams involved in direct risk communication work with the public should refer to the AoR when planning and prioritising their communication but use appropriate tools for the specific audience they are communicating with. 

The AoR is intended to be a tool for understanding risk to London and to Londoners as these risks manifest in the community. It is not an assessment of risk to firefighters. Potential firefighter risk incurred whilst responding to incidents described in the AoR is not considered within it. This is intentional. LFB has other systems and control measures for assessing and managing firefighter risk. 

The AoR is distinct from the corporate risk register (CRR) in that it focuses on ‘outward facing’ community risks and foreseeable hazards to which the Brigade may be expected to respond to, or which may impact the Brigade’s ability to respond to these incidents. In contrast the CRR takes a more ‘inward facing’ approach, focusing on risks that could prevent the Brigade operating effectively or impact its ability to achieve its organisational objectives. However, risks from the AoR may be escalated to the CRR if assessed to be of sufficient organisational impact or there is an identified capability gap. 

The AoR is not intended to identify new control measures for highlighted risks. Control measures for risks are identified in supporting documents which may include service strategies, departmental plans, and policies, and in local risk management plans. 

Our approach to risk 

To provide a robust assessment of all foreseeable risks, the AoR is structured into four layers. Each layer presents a different type of risk information for a specific purpose and audience. The layers are presented separately as individual reports for clarity. As a result, similar risks may appear with different scores and in different layers. 

• Layer one (public concern) reflects the level of concern expressed by the public about different risks. This will not necessarily reflect the measured frequency or severity of incidents but may be an early indicator of change. Public concern will also be influenced by factors such as the recency and visibility of risks, such as notable fires locally or in the news. 
• Layer two (commonly occurring risk) considers frequent incidents and incident locations, such as dwelling fires in purpose-built flats. These risks occur relatively regularly and can result in casualties, often affecting individuals or small numbers of people rather than large numbers in a single incident. This layer looks at which risks cause most casualties and also where these risks are most likely to manifest geographically. 
• Layer three (reasonable worst-case scenarios) considers low-likelihood but high-impact events, such as a single, large residential high-rise fire causing many casualties. 
• Layer four (Horizon Scanning for new and emerging risks) considers how risks may change or present differently in the future. For example, how the changing built environment may influence frequency and severity of fires in flats or how climate change may influence fire service incidents. 

Public concerns and perception of risk are intentionally presented as layer one of the assessment, ensuring communities’ views are highlighted. 

Our approach to individual vulnerability 

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction define vulnerability as, “The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards.” 

Because individual susceptibility to the impacts of a hazard is distinct from the likelihood or consequence of that hazard being realised in London, specific personal vulnerability data sets are not used in this assessment. However, by adopting the NFCC methodology for combined dwelling fire risk in layer two of this assessment, any individual factors associated with heightened susceptibility to the consequence of dwelling fires is addressed. This is through the inclusion of the identified personal factors that correlate with consequence of fire. The NFCC definition of risk dwelling fire risk map can therefore be viewed as including vulnerability to dwelling fire within it. 

LFB’s Prevention Strategy and LFB Policy 1010 identify common characteristics of those who are most at risk of, and vulnerable to the effects of, fire. These data are used in planning the allocation of Home Fire Safety Visits and other preventative work. The six characteristics below are used within LFB as indicators of vulnerability or risk to dwelling fire. 

• Smoker. 
• Lives alone. 
• Over 60 years old. 
• In receipt of care (informal, formal or both). 
• No working smoke alarms. 
• User of mobility aids, or chair/bed bound. 

In addition to these, disability and evacuation difficulties have been referenced as identified vulnerabilities in fires from coroners’ reports. 

Individuals can be susceptible to the impacts of non-fire hazards through these factors and others. The exposure of individual members of the public to various risks will differ significantly with their location and activity, this exposure may be correlated to or independent from protected characteristics. The layered approach adopted to assessing risk ensures that each type of fire service-related risk an individual may be exposed to is assessed for likelihood and severity. The relevant factors indicating heightened vulnerability will differ depending on the context of the incident type and the hazard to which an individual may be exposed. LFB staff who support communities at incidents or during their work are trained to identify vulnerability including but not limited to; socio-economic, mental health, and physical needs. Crews are trained to identify possible safeguarding issues and take immediate actions to support vulnerable members of the community, keep them safe and refer to the appropriate agency for further support if required. 

For these reasons, the AoR does not seek to assess all forms of individual vulnerability across all circumstances. Its purpose is to provide a strategic, risk-based assessment to inform service-wide prioritisation and planning.