Key findings

Key findings Layer One: Public Concerns and Public Risk Perception

Risk: Malicious Threats and terrorism  

Key finding: 

• Malicious threats and terrorism remain the most concerning risk reported by the public in workshops and remain in the top three concerns reported in polling behind purpose built flat and high-rise fires.

Implication: 

• The public will seek information on ways to make themselves safe from malicious threats.
• The public will expect activity from LFB in areas related to malicious threats  

Risk: Street violence

Key finding:

• Respondents to workshops and polling report high levels of concern around street violence and knife crime.  
• Subsequent engagements with fire crews revealed examples of crews intervening in violent incidents when moving around London. Crews reported increasing exposure to violence in day-to-day work.  

Implication:

• The level of concern reflects the operating environment for LFB staff who may encounter violence in their duties.  

Risk: Fires in purpose-built flats and fires in high rise residential buildings 

Key finding:

• Fires in purpose-built flats and fires in high rise residential buildings remain the most concerning to the public from polling data and are second and third to malicious threats in workshop data.  

Implication:

• A persistent high level of concern indicates a risk to which the public feel exposed or feel is poorly controlled. 

Risk: Lithium-ion and Electrical Safety  

Key finding:

• Website traffic analysis indicates that safety information is most often sought regarding lithium-ion and electrical safety. This indicates a persistently high level of concern in the community.  
• Qualitative feedback from workshops and polling indicates a high level of concern regarding e-bikes and e scooters in particular   

Implication:

• Persistent high level of concern indicates a risk to which the public feel exposed or feel is poorly controlled.   

Key findings Layer Two: Risks relating to property, place and incident type

Risk: Fires in high rise buildings Incident Type A1HR 

Key finding: 

• Based on incident data from the last 5 years, the risk presented by A1HR incidents has increased. This is driven by an increase in the severity score, indicating more casualties 

Implication: 

• This incident type is a persistently high risk and is associated with a higher-than-average casualty rate. 

Risk: Persons in Crisis, Person Threatening to Jump, Incident Types B12, J12 and Special Service Suicide attempt.

Key finding: 

• Incident data indicates a trend of increasing likelihood and increasing severity for incidents of this type. This is a persistent increase over the data capture period. Incidents coded as Special Service Suicide Attempts (inclusive of some B12/J12) show increase in likelihood.  

Implication: 

• Crews will more often respond to persons in crisis, particularly at height.  

Risk: Highest risk incident types  

Key finding: 

• The highest risk incident types are;  
  • A1 Fire   
  • A1HR Fire High Rise Buildings  
  • B1 Person trapped excluding RTC  
  • B1T Train or Tram incident involving trapped person  
  • B2 reduced special service   
  • B3 Effecting Entry   
  • B10 Person in Precarious Position  
  • B11 Person collapsed/injured including behind doors  
  • B12 Person Threatening To Jump  
  • B19   Assist LAS Ambulance with Bariatric/Difficult removal  
  • C1 Hazmat Incident initial call   
  • C3 Acid attack on Person  
  • J3 Person in waterway / on foreshore accessible from land  
  • J0 FBT Running call from MCA  
  • Make safe RTC  
  • Persons trapped RTC  
  • N0 NILO assessment  
  • Vehicle fire   

Implication: 

• These incidents will happen relatively frequently and/or will have relatively high casualty rates compared to other incident types. These incident types may be good targets for assurance activities and should be reflected in organisational prioritisation.  

Key findings Layer three: Extraordinary risks and risks from the London Risk Register

Risk: Fires in purpose-built high-rise flats   

Key finding: 

• Reasonable worst case scenario risk increased by London Resilience Forum (LRF). Reflective of LFB incident data indicating more casualties in day-to-day incidents.  

Implication: 

• Exposure to this risk is related to the increasing number and height of tall residential buildings in London.  London contains the overwhelming majority of the UKs high rise dwellings including those found to need further mitigation post the Grenfell Tower fire.  

Risk: Marauding terrorist attack - firearms 

Key finding: 

• The LRF has increased the risk score of this attack methodology  

Implication: 

• Firefighters will continue to be mobilised to incidents of this type as part of a multi-agency response. Frequency and/or severity may increase. 

Risk: Malicious attack on civil nuclear installations – Cyber   

Key finding: 

• The LRF has increased the risk score of this attack methodology 

Implication: 

• Firefighters may be mobilised to support incidents of this type as part of a multi-agency response if the attack leads to a requirement for LFB capabilities.  

Risk: Large Aircraft incident in proximity to Airport 

Key finding: 

• The LRF has increased the risk of this incident type 

Implication: 

• LFB initial response and National Resilience assets (USAR) will require mobilization to respond to this incident type. Frequency and/or severity may increase.  

Risk: Major fire in care homes and hospitals  

Key finding: 

• The LRF has increased the risk of this incident type 

Implication: 

• Firefighters will continue to be mobilised to incidents of this type, frequency and/or severity may increase.  

Key findings Layer four: New and Emerging Risks

Risk: Physiological constraints during high-rise firefighting affecting operational outcomes  

Key finding: 

• High rise firefighting, and in particular ascending stairs in Breathing Apparatus is associated with physiological strain and core body temperatures increase in Firefighters. Trials have indicated firefighters face constraints when ascending stairs vertically, greater than 100m (or lower if they are required to perform a significant firefighting task before descending or if there are arduous conditions on the ascent). 9B 

Implication: 

• In instances where vertical travel in BA is required, i.e. firefighting lift unavailable, crews' ability to sufficiently penetrate a tall building to achieve all search and rescue objectives will be constrained. The exposure to this risk is increased in London due to the increasing number and height of residential buildings.  

Risk: Extreme and wide area flooding impacting London   

Key finding: 

• Several flooding specific risks exist for London including rainfall and river flooding. These events may become more common, more widespread and severe. (6A, 7B, 7E, 2A, 6F) 

Implication: 

• Crews may need to respond to larger and more severe flooding
• Demand peaks associated with heavy rainfall may become more prolonged and more intense.

Risk: Concerns about modern construction methods, building regulations, and compliance with industry standards 

Key finding: 

• Specific concern regarding development of cross laminated timber structures and modular construction methods and performance of these materials during fire or collapse. 9A 

Implication: 

• Crews may attend incidents involving these materials and these incidents may develop in a way unfamiliar to crews.  

Risk: An increasingly varied and complex malicious threat picture  

Key finding: 

• A wide range of public and state targets with an increasing range of state aligned, ideological, criminal and self-initiated actors 8B, 8C, 8D, 8E, 8F, 8G. 

Implication: 

• Firefighters will continue to be mobilised to incidents of this type, but frequency and severity may increase. 

Risk: Alternative fuels as a multiplier of severity and/or likelihood of fire service incidents. 1C, 2B, 2D, 3A, 3B,3C 9E 

Key finding: 

•  Increasing exposure to this risk is driven by the increased presence of these items and materials in London.  

Implication: 

• Firefighters will continue to be mobilised to incidents of this type. Frequency and severity may increase. 

Risk: Economic factors interacting with ageing-built environment and infrastructure  

Key finding: 

• Potential for structural failures, initiating or worsening fire service incidents. 1D,2D,4C 

Implication: 

• Frequency and severity of incident type may increase. 

Risk: Rescue required from horizonal and vertical deep penetration into structures/earth 4B 

Key finding: 

• Increasingly complex built environment challenging operating capability  

Implication: 

• Firefighters may be mobilised to incidents in locations at or beyond the limit of their operating capability 

Risk: Social and demographic factors, e.g. health, aging and social cohesion and economic pressures leading to upwards pressure on operational demand. 5A, 5B, 5C, 8J, 5G, 5I, 5M 

Key finding: 

• Upwards pressure on operational demand. 

Implication: 

• Increase in demand may impact operational planning and capacity.  

Composite summary of highest risks from LFB data by location and London Risk Register 

Highest risks identified in the London Risk Register

Status: Red

R95 Nuclear attack by a state on the UK mainland or UK overseas interests.
R76 Drought.
R21b Attack on UK electricity infrastructure – Cyber
R12 Non-state nuclear attack – urban area
R21b Attack on UK electricity infrastructure – Cyber
R89 High-Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP)
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 (between 0.2% and 1% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R50a Failure of National Electricity Transmission System
R14 Biological attack unenclosed urban area  
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 (between 1% and 5% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R73 High Temperatures and heatwaves
R75b Fluvial Flooding
R16a Chemical attack – unenclosed urban area 
R16b Chemical attack – enclosed urban area
R21a Attack on UK electricity infrastructure – conventional
R22b Malicious attack on civil nuclear installations – Cyber
R07 Malicious Rail Network Attack
R23a Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure – Conventional
R23b Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure – Cyber
R75c Surface Water Flooding
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 (between 1% and 5% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R78 Pandemic 
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 (between 5% and 25% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

L54a Fires in purpose-built high-rise flats
R64 Food Supply Contamination
R79 Outbreak of an Emerging infectious disease
R71 Severe Space Weather
R74 Low temperatures and snow
R17 Chemical, Biological or Radiological attack on water supply infrastructure
R19 Conventional attack on chemical infrastructure
R40d Marauding terrorist attack - firearms 
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 (between 5% and 25% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R02 Conventional attack on government
R40b Land based terrorist attack - improvised explosive device.
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 (more than 25% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

Status: Amber

R52 Civil Nuclear Accident
R22a Malicious attack on civil nuclear installations – conventional 
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 (less than 0.2% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R48 Loss of Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) Services
L71a Large Aircraft incident in proximity to Airport
R08 Malicious Aviation Incident
R80a Major outbreak of foot and mouth disease
R51 Failure of Gas Supply Infrastructure 
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 (between 0.2% and 1% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R40 Rail Accident
R44 Accident involving high consequence dangerous goods
R46 Malicious Drone Incident
R49 Simultaneous loss of all fixed and mobile forms of communication
R80b Major Outbreak of Animal Disease – Avian Influenza
L19 Groundwater Flooding  
R75a Coastal Flooding
R77 Poor Air Quality
R20a Attack on UK gas infrastructure – conventional
L54e Major fire in care homes and hospitals area 
R23a Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure – Conventional.  
R23b Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure - Cyber
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 (between 1% and 5% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R67 Volcanic eruption
R72 Storms
R15 Radiological attack – unenclosed urban area
R09 Malicious Maritime Incident
R20b Attack on UK gas infrastructure – Cyber
R15 Radiological attack – unenclosed urban 
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 (between 5% and 25% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

R55b Technological failure at a UK critical financial market infrastructure
R82 Public Disorder
R84 Industrial action - firefighters
R87 Reception and Integration of British Nationals Arriving from Overseas
R24 Cyber-attack - health and social care system
R04a Person-borne improvised explosive device
R04c Marauding attack (low sophistication)
R05b Maritime Terrorist Attack – Marauding Terrorist Firearms attack on a passenger ferry 
Source: London Risk Register
Consequence: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 (more than 25% chance of occurring within London within the next 12 months)

Highest risks identified from LFB data by location

Status: Red

Fire - Landfill or wasteland
Fire - Manufacturing and processing
Fire - Retail
Non-Fire - Outdoor water
Non-Fire - Trains
Non-Fire - Vegetation by road, track or canal
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between one a week and one a day)

Fire - Private garage, shed or outbuilding
Non-Fire - Transport buildings
Fire - House or Bungalow
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between one and five a day)

Fire - Converted flats and HMOs
Non-Fire - Rural land
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between one and five a day)

Fire - Purpose built flats
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between five and twenty a day)

Non-Fire - Urban infrastructure
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between five and twenty a day)

Non-Fire - Road Vehicle
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 (likely frequency of occurring within London - twenty or more  a day

Non-Fire - Converted flats and HMOs
Non-Fire - House or Bungalow
Non-Fire - Purpose built flats
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 (likely frequency of occurring within London - twenty or more  a day

Status: Amber

Fire - Other residential property
Fire - Warehouses and bulk storage
Non-Fire - Camping tent, shelter or marquee  
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 (likely frequency of occurring within London - 20 or more a day)

Fire - Care and supported living
Fire - Offices and call centres
Fire - Public administration, utilities and amenities
Fire - Short stay accommodation
Non-Fire - Boat
Non-Fire - Other residential property
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between one a week and one a day)

Fire - Farming and agriculture
Fire - Road Vehicle
Fire - Rural land
Fire - Urban infrastructure
Non-Fire - Car park and transport
Non-Fire - Communal living
Non-Fire - Entertainment and culture
Non-Fire - Manufacturing and processing
Non-Fire - Private garage, shed or outbuilding
Non-Fire - Sports and leisure
Non-Fire - Warehouses and bulk storage
Non-Fire - Food and Drink
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between one a five a day)

Non-Fire - Education
Non-Fire - Hospitals and medical care
Non-Fire - Offices and call centres
Non-Fire - Retail
Non-Fire - Short stay accommodation
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 (likely frequency of occurring within London - between five and twenty a day)

Non-Fire - Care and supported living
Source: LFB data by location
Consequence: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 (likely frequency of occurring within London - twenty or more a day)