This layer identifies and prioritises new and emerging operational risks and trends. These risks and trends have been identified by bringing together LFB subject matter experts, policy owners and key stakeholders to a series of workshops where risk information is shared cross departmentally and a joint understanding of future risk developed and then moderated at a later meeting of Assistant Commissioners. Workshop participants used tools from the Government Office for Science, Futures Toolkit to examine trends and risk information regarding the operational environment. The broad operating contexts provided by National Operational Guidance are used to present the resultant information, however many risks and trends cross contexts. Future risks are presented in as a summary aligned to the main or most appropriate context for ease of presentation. An additional context has been added to the seven described in National Operation Guidance to present information relating to demographic, societal and operational trends.
When assessing the immediacy of an emerging trend or future risk, the three horizons concept described in the Futures Tool Kit is used. Horizon one (H1) issues are strategically important now. They can be seen and described, and LFB is currently attending to related incidents. These issues are current but yet to become business as usual. Further control measure may need to be developed. Horizon two (H2) issues are issues that are visible but will develop in a way that may not be apparent yet. Many of the key trends and factors are visible allowing policy development for H2 issues. Horizon three (H3) issues are new challenges that will emerge or more general concerns. It is not clear how these factors will develop but the lead time is greater indicating there is both need and time for further research.
Emerging trends and future risks are presented below. This list shows the main themes prioritised by level of concern and immediacy. Appendix 8 (found on the Assessment of Risk 2025 page) contains further detail by context. Delegates at the workshop series were asked to use a simple Red, Amber, Green system of ranking their concerns with red being the highest and green being the lowest. A metric or indicator table was not provided as respondents were asked to focus on their individual level of concern rather than attempting to apply a metric or indicator. The purpose of this approach was to engage as broad a group of people as possible with different levels of specific information from a range of different departments and to build a consensus with as few barriers to discussion as possible.
Many emerging risks identified in 2024 remain a concern to workshop participants in 2025, key areas of concern remain the changing built environment in London including modern methods of construction, and the increasing density of very tall residential buildings and the associated operational challenges, among others. These include the challenges in conducting emergency evacuation of buildings beyond the historical normal operating environment.
The proliferation and wider adoption of new fuels, energy sources and bulk energy storage, in particular lithium-ion energy storage, present ongoing and developing operational challenges. This remains a concern from 2024 and is an Horizon One concern. This indicates that LFB is already dealing with the outcomes of the developing risk. In layer one the public report significant concern around this risk indicating exposure in the community. There is uncertainty about how this risk manifests in horizon two and tree, and this will be driven by factors such as uptake and use of new technologies in the community and the legislative and political environment. New controls and procedures will be needed to address the different ways the technology is adopted and adapted commercially and domestically. The developing legislative environment around new fuels will be crucial in determining the controls required by LFB.
Climate change and societal pressures are viewed to be associated with an increasing number of large incidents and incidents with high resource utilisation. This will lead to increasing challenges with managing operational information flow, challenges in maintaining situational awareness pan-London during peak demand and challenges managing high simultaneous demand at maximum utilisation. Concern from professionals in this area exceeds concerns from the community assessed in layer one and indicate that there is a challenge with risk communication regarding these longer-term trends with lower individual exposure.
Malicious or security related incidents remain a concern; in particular the potential for multisite incidents and the impact this has on resources and deployment.
The list below outlines the highest concerns from the emerging risk workshop series. Groups of similar concerns have been aggregated into larger themes for ease of presentation, where this is the case individual identifiers that link to the original concern reported are listed next to the main theme. Where concerns cross several horizons, they have been presented in the most immediate to show the most concerning element. Consequently, there are no horizon three only items identified in this analysis.
Appendix 8 (found on the Assessment of Risk 2025 page) shows the detailed individual concerns this includes concerns raised by attendees at the workshop that were discussed by the group during consensus sessions and considered to be of minimal concern. These are not included in the main report for brevity.
Emerging trends and future risks: Themes and horizons
Status: Red
Horizon 1
- Extreme and wide area flooding impacting London; 6A, 7B, 7E, 2A, 6F
- Alternative fuels as a multiplier of severity and/or likelihood of fire service incidents. 1C, 2B, 2D, 3A, 3B, 3C, 9E
- Economic factors interacting with ageing built-environment/infrastructure leading to failures initiating or worsening fire service incidents. 1D, 2D, 4C
- Rescue required from horizontal and vertical deep penetration into structures/earth 4B
- Social and demographic factors, e.g. health, aging and social cohesion and economic pressures leading to upwards pressure on operational demand. 5A, 5B, 5C, 8J, 5G, 5I, 5M
- An increasingly varied and complex malicious threat picture involving a wide range of public and state targets with an increasing range of state aligned, ideological, criminal and self-initiated actors 8B, 8C, 8D, 8E, 8F, 8G.
- Concerns about modern construction methods, building regulations, and compliance with industry standards including the development of cross laminated timber structures and modular construction methods and performance during fire or collapse. 9A
- Physiological constraints during high-rise firefighting affecting operational outcomes 9B
Horizon 2
- Car Park Incidents. Concerns regarding the weight of vehicles, aging buildings, increased fire loading due to new vehicle designs and concerns regarding designs for autonomous vehicles. 2D 4E
Horizon 3
- No risks were identified for Horizon 3 which hadn’t already been identified for Horizons 1 or 2.
Status: Amber
Horizon 1
- Potential casualties size, shape and weight (body habitus) increasing and potentially exceeding current equipment and training. 4F
- Person in Crisis. Following from JOL action note with reference to noted trend in increasing volume of calls to associated ITCs 4G
- People requiring rescue from areas, including extreme height, below ground and in water, beyond the current scope of operations or SSOW of LFB. This risk is multiplied by the complex operating environment of London. 4A, 4D, 4E.
- Increasing urban overcrowding reflected in overcrowded shared accommodation. i.e multiple sleeping risks in small places and single rooms used by multiple occupants. 5H
- Increasing frequency and severity of wildfire and outdoor vegetation fires at rural urban interface 6B
- Increasing prevalence of sinkholes and land movement due to higher peak rainfall driven by climate change. 6C
- Increased frequency of high wind related incidents and storms due to climate change leading to structural damage and disruption including through wind-blown trees across wide areas. 6D
- Issues such as drought and heatwave impacting operations through increased demand, water supply disruption and physiological impacts on crews 6E. Multiplier when combined with 6A, 6B and 6C
- Increasing risk of requirement for mass evacuation and relocation of residents driven by climate change. 7A
- Increasing number of large incidents, multi-site incidents and incidents with high resource utilisation leading to challenges with managing operational information flow, developing a shared operating understanding pan London, and in managing simultaneous demand of different major or significant incident simultaneously.
- Malicious use of drones leading to fire service response incidents. 8I
- A concern of malicious threats developing directed at emergency responders such as malicious calls used as traps. 8A
- Lack of personal evacuation plans, especially for vulnerable people. 9C
Horizon 2
- Autonomous Vehicles and drones, including drone and autonomous delivery vehicles, initiating fire service incidents through collision or malfunction. 2E
- Increasing size, complexity and automation of commercial buildings leading to increased fire loading, including lithium and BES, with increased fire spread and fewer human sources of information available to responders. 1A, 1E, 1F, 1B
- Increasing number of Electrical vehicle fires as ownership increases and existing vehicles age. 3D
- Increasing likelihood of outages and blackouts affecting business community including operations and communications and driving demand in the community. 7D
Horizon 3
- No risks were identified for Horizon 3 which hadn’t already been identified for Horizons 1 or 2.