This is a subjective risk assessment for rare or “reasonable worst-case” scenarios. The UK Government and the London Resilience Forum (a partnership of organisations with responsibility for emergency preparedness in London, including London Fire Brigade) each produce a risk register of reasonable worst-case risks. These are updated periodically and are used by them to prepare their response should these risks occur. The London Risk Register (LRR) is a register of the risks that most impact London and draws these risks largely from the National Security Risk Assessment. This risk assessment uses a broad definition of risk and includes impacts on human welfare, behaviour, economic, infrastructure, environment, and security. The Brigade must plan for how it will continue to operate and respond, in the case that any of these scenarios are realised. This layer of the AoR therefore takes risks directly from the London Risk Register.
The risks for which LFB is the lead are scored using input from LFB subject matter experts and with input and scoring from partners. Risks on which other partners lead are scored in a similar way. This gives the Brigade and the London Resilience Forum a wider, partner perspective on risks faced in London and England. This register includes risks that LFB will not directly respond to, however the inclusion of risks on the register indicates that LFB should plan for continued delivery of core functions during an event.
The purpose of this layer is to allow the Brigade to plan and prepare for:
- Response to low frequency but high impact events
- Events that LFB will not respond to directly but during which LFB will need to continue to deliver its core function, i.e. events that have a business continuity implication for LFB.
In producing this risk assessment, we have reviewed the ratings that we have provided to the LRF. Risks on this assessment are reviewed cyclically with higher scoring risks reviewed at greater frequency. Changes in the LRR will also reflect changes in the national threat picture and will reflect partnership planning and information sources available to central government.
The number of malicious act threats recorded on the LRR has increased notably in 2024. A further increase in likelihood and severity of individual malicious threats occurred again in 2025. The preponderance of malicious threats on the LRR reflects the current partnership assessment of threat level across a spectrum of attack methodologies.
LFB will be required to respond directly to incidents involving malicious acts where its capabilities are required or where statutory duties exist. Items on this register such as R89 High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse, R50a National Electricity Transmission Failure and R21 Attack on UK electricity Infrastructure are likely to pose business continuity challenges for LFB.
Two separate red risks and one amber risk relating to different types flooding are recorded in the LRR. Although LFB does not hold the statutory duty for flooding, these risks, if actualised, are likely to impose a significant operational demand on LFB as a category one responder with a duty for rescue.
Although the risks on this register are reasonable worst case scenarios (RWCS), they are plausible in any given year. This is a distinction from Layer four, where the intent is to look further ahead at risks becoming more concerning in the future. However in 2025 there is significant overlap between these layers as many RWCS are described as becoming increasingly likely or severe in the future.
This AoR also includes items that do not feature on the LRR but are viewed as of concern to LFB.
Extraordinary scenario risk matrix - London Risk Register
Status: Red
R95 Nuclear attack by a state on the UK mainland or UK overseas interests.
R76 Drought.
R21b Attack on UK electricity infrastructure – Cyber
R12 Non-state nuclear attack – urban area
R21b Attack on UK electricity infrastructure – Cyber
R89 High-Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP)
Impact: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 - medium/low
R50a Failure of National Electricity Transmission System
R14 Biological attack unenclosed urban area
Impact: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 - medium
R73 High Temperatures and heatwaves
R75b Fluvial Flooding
R16a Chemical attack – unenclosed urban area
R16b Chemical attack – enclosed urban area
R21a Attack on UK electricity infrastructure – conventional
R22b Malicious attack on civil nuclear installations – Cyber
R07 Malicious Rail Network Attack
R23a Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure – Conventional
R23b Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure – Cyber
R75c Surface Water Flooding
Impact: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 - medium
R78 Pandemic
Impact: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 - medium/high
L54a Fires in purpose-built high-rise flats
R64 Food Supply Contamination
R79 Outbreak of an Emerging infectious disease
R71 Severe Space Weather
R74 Low temperatures and snow
R17 Chemical, Biological or Radiological attack on water supply infrastructure
R19 Conventional attack on chemical infrastructure
R40d Marauding terrorist attack - firearms
Impact: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 - medium/high
R02 Conventional attack on government
R40b Land based terrorist attack - improvised explosive device.
Impact: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 - high
Status: Amber
R52 Civil Nuclear Accident
R22a Malicious attack on civil nuclear installations – conventional
Impact: 5 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 - low
R48 Loss of Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) Services
L71a Large Aircraft incident in proximity to Airport
R08 Malicious Aviation Incident
R80a Major outbreak of foot and mouth disease
R51 Failure of Gas Supply Infrastructure
Impact: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 - medium/low
R40 Rail Accident
R44 Accident involving high consequence dangerous goods
R46 Malicious Drone Incident
R49 Simultaneous loss of all fixed and mobile forms of communication
R80b Major Outbreak of Animal Disease – Avian Influenza
L19 Groundwater Flooding
R75a Coastal Flooding
R77 Poor Air Quality
R20a Attack on UK gas infrastructure – conventional
L54e Major fire in care homes and hospitals area
R23a Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure – Conventional.
R23b Malicious attack on fuel supply infrastructure - Cyber
Impact: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 - medium
R67 Volcanic eruption
R72 Storms
R15 Radiological attack – unenclosed urban area
R09 Malicious Maritime Incident
R20b Attack on UK gas infrastructure – Cyber
R15 Radiological attack – unenclosed urban
Impact: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 - medium/high
R55b Technological failure at a UK critical financial market infrastructure
R82 Public Disorder
R84 Industrial action - firefighters
R87 Reception and Integration of British Nationals Arriving from Overseas
R24 Cyber-attack - health and social care system
R04a Person-borne improvised explosive device
R04c Marauding attack (low sophistication
R05b Maritime Terrorist Attack – Marauding Terrorist Firearms attack on a passenger ferry
Impact: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 - high
Status: Yellow
R45 Aviation Crash
R53 Radiation Release from overseas nuclear site
R56 Accidental Fire or explosion at an onshore major hazard (COMAH) site
R57 Accidental Large Toxic Chemical Release from a COMAH site.
R58 Accidental fire or explosion on an offshore oil or gas installation.
R59 Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline.
R62 Reservoir/Dam Collapse.
L66 Radioactive incident caused by mishandling of radioactive material
Impact: 4 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 - low
R63 Water Supply Infrastructure
HL22 Building Collapse
HL23 Bridge Collapse
Impact: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 - low
R47 Disruption of space-based services
R50b Regional Failure of the Electricity Network
R60 Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major accident hazard pipeline
R65 Major Fire
HL105 Complex built environments
R10 Strategic hostage taking.
Impact: 3 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 - medium/low
R54b Fires in major entertainment and/or public building
R10 Strategic hostage taking
R86 Industrial Action – fuel supply.
Impact: 2 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 - medium/low
L10 Local accident on motorways and major trunk roads
R37 Insolvency of Supplier of Critical Services to public sector
L71b Small aircraft incident in proximity to airport
R26 Cyber-attack - telecommunications systems
R83 Industrial Action – Public Transport
Impact: 2 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 - medium
R36 Major Social Care Provider Failure
R39 Failure of a supplier of CNI Chemicals
R55a Technological Failure at a Systemically Important Retail Bank
R66 Wildfires
R05a Maritime Terrorist Attack – Vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED
R13 Anthrax letters
R85 Industrial Action – Prison staff
Impact: 2 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 - medium/high
R11 Assassination of a high-profile public figure
L54c Fires involving landfill and waste processing sites.
Impact: 2 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 5 - high
Status: Green
R61 Accidental work-related (laboratory) release of a hazardous pathogen
R38 Insolvency affecting fuel supply.
Impact: 2 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 - low
R54 Radiation exposure from transported, stolen or lost goods
R80d Major Outbreak of Animal Disease – African Swine Fever
R80c Major Outbreak of Animal Disease – African Horse Sickness
R68 Earthquake
Impact: 1 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 1 - low
R42 Major Maritime Pollution Incident
R30 Malicious Attack – UK Financial CNI
Impact: 1 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 2 - medium/low
R41 Larger Passenger Vessel Accident
R32 Major interference in UK democratic process
HL21 Land Movement
R28 Cyber-attack – government critical systems loss
R29 Cyber-attack– government data breach
Impact: 1 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 3 - medium
R25 Cyber-attack – transport sector
Impact: 1 (on a scale of 1-5 where 5 is the highest option)
Likelihood: 4 - medium/high
Layer 3.2. Modelling Impacts of high demand and extraordinary risks.
In 2024 LFB used Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios from the London Risk Register within the existing Brigade optimisation model and dynamic cover tool to examine the resilience of our response capability under high demand and extraordinary risk scenarios. This work was based on the development of exceedance curves for appliance deployment. This work was intended to provide an operational stress test for our response capability. This work has not been repeated for 2025’s assessment but the conclusions remain useful.
- LFBs pumping appliance capacity is resilient under high simultaneous demand. Over a 12-month period in 2023 at the 99thpercentile of demand LFB could expect an average first appliance attendance time of under 7 minutes.
- LFBs pumping appliance capacity is resilient under combined high demand and extraordinary risk. Modelled scenario 1. (20 pump incident occurring in central London at a period of 99th percentile demand) indicates that LFB can achieve its backstop attendance standards under high demand if proactive steps are taken by control staff to provide dynamic cover and relocate pumping appliances as incidents occur.
- LFBs Specialist Appliance capacity becomes challenged more quickly under high demand. In the scenario modelled of a subsurface train accident or incident; Command Unit, Urban Search and Rescue and EDBA resources approached capacity along with the Fire Rescue Unit appliance fleet which is the current delivery mechanism for several specialist capabilities.
Extraordinary Risks of note in addition to data-led matrices and LRR
These are foreseeable risks which are not identified in the last five years of LFB data as being very high or high and are not currently featured on the London Risk Register but are highlighted through cross departmental engagement and as such are considered appropriate to highlight as part of the LFB’s Assessment of Risk. Risks from this section may progress to the LRR through partner engagement in the London Resilience Forum.
Fire in major heritage buildings
London has approximately 40,000 Historic listed buildings, buildings of special interest and modern buildings that store historic relics and artefacts. This includes four UNESCO World Heritage Sites - Westminster Abbey, Palace of Westminster, Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, Maritime Greenwich and the Tower of London. LFB responded to almost 8000 incidents in 2024 that involved or were within close proximity of Historic Listed Buildings.
Heritage and historic buildings present unique firefighting challenges due to the various unregulated construction methods and building alterations implemented over many years and the potential for rapid fire spread and building failure. Salvage and damage control operations require careful planning and prioritisation. A significant fire in a heritage building in London is likely to have large direct and indirect costs to the capital and country including impacts on tourism. A large fire could destroy items of international heritage value which will be impossible to replace. There is likely to be significant moral pressure on firefighters to act to save national heritage in a structure not designed to resist fire spread due to its historic nature leading to significant operational risks.
Examples of recent significant incidents that have occurred in London or in other countries:
- Cutty Sark Fire – 2007 – Large fire occurred on the Cutty Sark, almost destroying the historic ship.
- Glasgow School of Art, Glasgow – 2014 – Large fire at the Glasgow School of Art.
- Morden Mosque fire – 2015 – Large fire damaging 50% of ground floor of Europe’s largest mosque
- The National Museum of Brazil was destroyed by a large fire in September 2018. Although some items were saved, it is believed that 92.5% of its archive of 20 million items were destroyed in the fire.
- Notre-Dame de Paris fire – 2019 – Major fire in a historical cathedral in Paris requiring over 400 firefighters to extinguish costing over €1 billion to restore.
- Somerset House fire, London – August 2024 - the fire damaged parts of the third floor and the roof of the west wing.
Fires in buildings with simultaneous evacuation strategies.
London Fire Brigade (LFB) collects data for buildings with a temporary suspension of ‘stay put’ where an interim simultaneous evacuation strategy has been put in place by an independent fire safety professional. These buildings are likely to perform in such a way during a fire that a stay put strategy is untenable. The total numbers of buildings of this type can change daily, when interim measures are required, or a building is remediated and no longer requires the measures. However as of 14th April 2025 1426 buildings required suspension of “stay put” in London. This is a 9.86% increase in prevalence from last year. Fires in these buildings present operational challenges to crews due to the behaviour and spread of fire and due to the numbers of residents evacuating.
Examples of recent significant incidents that have occurred in London or in other countries:
- New Providence Wharf fire - 2021 - Large fire in a building requiring evacuation.
- Hurlock Heights fire – 2021 - Balcony fire with potential to spread.
- Relay Building fire – 2022- Balcony involved in fire with potential to spread.
- Spectrum Building fire – 2024 – Fire in office to residential conversion building undergoing remediation work to remove cladding due to fire safety concerns.